基于CREAM追溯法的变电运行人因失效分析

Human errors analysis in substation operation based on CREAM

人因失效是影响电力系统变电运行安全的主要因素,任何人因失效必然有其底层诱因和内在联系。深入探讨人因失效规律,对安全管理部门制订对策预防恶性电气误操作事故的发生具有重要意义。目前尚缺乏一种系统的变电运行人因事故分析方法。认知可靠性和失误分析方法是第2代人因可靠性分析中的代表性方法,基于CREAM追溯法,建立了变电运行人因失效模型,提出了适用于变电运行人因失效事件分析的"后果-前因"追溯表及追溯分析方法。所提方法可作为变电运行人因事故分析的指导。

Human errors are the main factor that affects the security of power system substation operation, all human errors are sure to have basic evocable factors and inner relations. Discussing deeply the principle of human errors has important significance for security management department to establish countermeasures to prevent electric mistaken operation accidents, but it is short of a systematic analytic method for human errors of substation operation. Based upon retrospective method of CREAM, the model of human errors of substation operation was established and a consequent-antecedent retrospective table and the retrospective analytic method was presented for human errors of substation operation. The proposed method can be used as a kind of guidance for human errors analysis in substation operation.