对外贸易与经济增长的协整及因果关系检验——对安徽省1981～2005年数据的实证分析

为了研究区域经济发展中对外贸易与经济增长的关系究竟是怎样的,选取了安徽省1981～2005年进口、出口和GDP的数据,利用协整和Granger因果关系检验进行了实证分析,结果发现三者之间在长期存在着唯一的动态均衡关系,进、出口贸易与经济增长之间存在单向的因果关系,而出口与进口存在着互为因果关系。然后,在实证分析的基础上提出了相应的政策建议。

To study during the regional economic development how tne relationship between foreign trade and economic growth is,the paper selects the data of Anhui import,export and GDP from 1981 to 2005,and employs the measurement of cointegration test and Granger causality test to take the empirical analysis on them.It discovers that there is unique long run dynamic equilibrium among import,export and economic growth,single causality relationship between import,export and GDP,but mutual causality relationship between export and import.Based on the empirical analysis,relevant policy proposals are put forward.