灰色预测模型GM(1.1)在水文预测中的应用——以玛纳斯河为例

Application of Grey Prediction Model GM(1.1) for Forecasting Hydrology Kas an example of Manasi river

由于灰色预测模型理论较时间序列预测具有很大的优势,所以在许多领域得到广泛的应用。为将该方法应用于水文与水资源预测,本文以玛纳斯河流量预测为例,应用GM(1.1)灰色预测模型对水文水资源要素进行预测,并分析该预测模型在水文水资源中的应用。经分析认为,GM(1.1)灰色预测模型对水文水资源要素预测具有重要的意义。

Compared with the prediction of time series ,the theory of the grey prediction model has some great advantages. Therefore, it is employed in kinds of fields. In order to apply the method for the hydrogeology and water resources field, this article sets the Manasi River as an example, using the GM（1.1）grey prediction model to make a prediction of the hydrographical factors and those of water resources. Then it analyzes the application of this prediction method in the field. Finally, it makes a conclusion that the GM （1.1）grey prediction model embraces a superiority over the prediction of the hydrographical factors and those of water resources.