构建山西省太原市痢疾发病率的ARIMA模型

Construction of ARIMA model on the incidence rate of dysentery in Taiyuan

目的构建痢疾发病率的ARIMA模型,预测太原市痢疾的发病趋势。方法引用1994-2003年月发病率拟合模型,利用2004-2006年的痢疾发病率对模型参数进行修正,建立预测方程,预测2007-2008年太原市痢疾发病率。结果构建ARIMA(1,0,0)(0,1,1)12模型,预测方程为(1-0.63692827B)(1-B12)yt=(1-0.69684797B12)et。预测太原市2007-2008年的痢疾发病水平呈平稳下降趋势。结论ARIMA(1,0,0)(0,1,1)12模型可作为太原市痢疾发病水平短期预测预报模型。

Objective The present study was designed to construct the ARIMA model for predicting the incidence of dysentery in Taiyuan. Methods To do Curve fit according to the monthly incidence of dysentery in Taiyuan from 1994 to 2003, modify the parameters of ARIMA in accordance with the incidence of dysentery from 2004 to 2006 and establish the predictive equation to predict the incidence of dysentery from 2007 to 2008. Results The ARIMA model was ARIMA（1,0,0）（0,1,1）12, predictive equation（1-0.63692827B） （1-B^12）y1=（1-0.69684797B^12）e1, predicting that the trend of the incidence of dysentery during 2007 to 2008 in Taiyuan would decline. Conclusion The forecasting effect of ARIMA（1,0,0）（0,1,1）12 is appropriate in short-term prediction of the incidence of dysentery in Taiyuan.