摘要
[目的]为传染病预警系统提供预警方法,提高传染病监测预警能力。[方法]使用历史数据建立数据库,应用移动平均数法建立每天的期望发病数,用Poisson检验计算每天暴发的概率。[结果]在这12个月期间共发现了20个基于医院其他感染性腹泻异常信号,进一步调查,在信号11、12、15和16时,有其他感染性腹泻呈家庭聚集性发生。[结论]泊松分布可作为传染病早期预警方法。
[Objective] To design and make available benchmark data sets for early warning system of communicable disease, [Methods] Alert data was based on historical infection diseases reports. Moving average method was used to set the number of expected cases every day, Poisson distribution was used to detect the probability of outbreak or epidemics. [Results] We found 20 signals of infectious diarrhea in 12 months. Through further epidemiological investigation, the infectious diarrhea was clustering in family in the signal number of 11, 12, 15, 16. [Conclusion] Poisson distribution can be chosen as an essential method in early communicable disease warning system.
出处
《现代预防医学》
CAS
北大核心
2007年第9期1667-1669,共3页
Modern Preventive Medicine
关键词
传染病
泊松分布
移动平均数法
Communicable Disease
Poisson＇s distribution
Moving average method
