滑坡次生灾害损失评估方法研究

Study on loss evaluation method of landslide secondary hazards

针对目前滑坡灾害破坏损失评估研究还没有涉及滑坡次生灾害破坏损失评估方面的研究,提出并建立了滑坡次生灾害破坏损失的评估模型与方法。应用故障树分析法(FTA)和事件树分析法(ETA)相结合的因果图方法对滑坡次生灾害作可靠性分析,由此对滑坡次生灾害损失进行了预测及评估。

Landslide hazard is a serious natural hazard next only to earthquake and floodwater. It has brought about great losses to the economic and social development worldwide. Each year it causes a loss up to billions of dollars in the whole world. A striking amount of money has been spent on the prevention and redress of the hazard and much more losses have been incurred indirectly in addition. In China, mountains where landslide hazards happen frequently and densely cover 70 % of the area. China is among those countries stricken most by these hazards. These hazards give rise to loss with a total value of hundreds of millions Yuan and great damages to the country and people＇s lives and properties. Since till now the damage and loss evaluation of secondary hazards has not been touched upon; the authors propose an evaluation model by making use of causal diagram combining failure tree analysis （FTA） and event tree analysis （ETA） to make reliability analysis of the secondary hazards system and forecasting of the losses thus arising from.