人民币汇率制度选择与改革路径——基于升值压力条件下的分析

China's Exchange Regime Choice and Reforming Route:An New Viewpoint Under Condition of Appreciation Pressure

本文讨论升值压力条件下的人民币汇率制度改革及调整路径。文章分析了人民币升值压力产生的根源以及升值预期对经济的影响,讨论了应对升值预期的对策,并对改革的路径选择和相关制度安排提出了政策建议。人民币升值压力的根本原因在于中国作为国际生产分工的"世界工厂"地位和各贸易伙伴国之间不平衡的储蓄率,解决贸易摩擦需要贸易政策调整和汇率政策改革的配合;升值预期引起的资本内流引发了流动性过剩、通货膨胀和资产泡沫等诸多严重问题;短期内解决升值预期的对策在于采用货币政策配合升值幅度消除资本流入的套利机会;而改革结售汇制度为市场形成汇率的机制,是中长期缓解人民币升值压力的关键所在。

This paper discussed China＇s exchange regime choice and reform route under the condition of appreciation pressure. The RMB ＂s appreciation pressure originate from the trade status of China as ＂World Factory＂ in economy internationalization and the domestic saving ratio differences between China and its trade partner; the solution for international trade friction required the cooperation of foreign trade policy and exchange regime reform. The anticipation of RMB attracted capital inflow and induced serious issues of liquidity surplus, inflation pressure and assets price bubble. In short term, RMB appreciation range should be kept in line with the inflation differential to restrain capital inflow, and in the long run, constraint foreign exchange settlement policy should be changed to improve RMB＇s exchange rate forming mechanism.