基于集对分析的城市生态足迹预测——以武汉市为例

Updating Methods for Dynamic Assessment of Ecological Footprint:——A Case Study of Wuhan City

自然生态环境是城市生态系统赖以生存和发展的重要物质基础，生态足迹作为生态环境承栽状态测度的指标，受到社会、经济、人口等多种因素的影响，表现出时空动态性和不确定性特征。鉴于集对分析（SPA）在处理不确定性问题的优势，以武汉市为研究对象，将城市总生态足迹与其相关影响因子联系起来考虑，融合集对分析中的同异反模式识别的“择近原则”和聚类分析思想构造集对分析动态模型，模型精度较高，验证误差均小于0．3％。并对武汉市2005年-2020年总生态足迹发展趋势进行了预测。研究结果表明，2005年-2020年总生态足迹将由1784．662×10^4hm^2增长到2781．388×10^4hm^2，呈现出低于GDP、高于能源利用率增长速率的趋势，生态环境将进一步恶化，对此就武汉市生态系统的发展提出了对策与建议。最后，指出SPA动态模型对城市生态系统中生态足迹动态化方法的修正具有理论和实际意义。

Ecological environment is critical to urban ecosystem by underpinning human welfare. Currently, how to dynamically predict ecological footprint is a muhidisciplinary issue in the research field of sustainable development. According to the past studies, the traditional regression models were built to assess the dynamic trends of ecological footprint （EF）, by transforming the indeterminacy problems into determinacy ones. Apparently, the indeterminacy information in the studied object was neglected. The Set Pair Analysis （SPA） has been proved to be an effective forecasting approach in an increasing number of applications in the indeterminacy problems. However, too few applications have been reported in ecological modeling. In this paper, through a case study of time serial analysis of total EFs and related socio-economic factors of Wuhan, a dynamic model of SPA was built to forecast total EFs of that district during 2005 to 2020. In order to build the SPA model, the authors put both total EFs and socio-economic factors together as a whole to deal with because ecological environment is closely connected and interacted with socio-economy. The process was as following： first, total EFs and related socio-economic factors were categorized into several corresponding sorts. Second, on the basis of corresponding sorts, the same- indefinite-contrary connection degrees were established between sorted systems and referencing system. Finally, according to nearest principle in the same-indefinite-contrary pattern recognition theory, the connection degrees, which exist between the data to be predicted and referencing system, could be identified and total EFs were predicted as results in succession. According to prediction results, up to 2020, the district would have been bearing an accumulative total EFs of 27.82million hm2, which is near 2 times than that of 2003. Although the increase rate of GDP would be restricted in a lower level during the general planning of 2005- 2020, the urban ecological environmental load could not respond to the socio-economic circumstances promptly. Besides, in order to keep a zero growth in total EFs from 2005 to 2020 and GDPs grows by the planned aims, the eco-efficiency should reach 6.4 × 10^4 yuan RMB/hm^2 . To avoid deterioration of ecological environment, the authors put forward a series of countermeasures to uphold the urban ecosystem. On the basis of the case study, the authors also pointed out the validity of SPA in ecosystem prediction. The paper put forward a new idea for the prediction of ecological footprint, which has never reported so far.