农地城市流转区位决策问题探讨

Location Decision-Making of Land Conversion from Rural to Urban Areas

农地城市流转是城市化、工业化过程中的普遍现象,同时由于农地的稀缺性、位置的固定性以及农地城市流转的不可逆性的特点,农地城市流转也是城市化、工业化的一种代价。怎样减少这种代价,防止城市用地扩展过程中占用大量的优质农田。农地城市流转的区位决策尤为重要。本文借鉴“生态、社会与经济”可持续利用评价指标体系,应用层次分析法构建了农地城市流转决策指标体系。在此基础上,利用层次分析法与特尔菲咨询法确定各个指标权重,最后用模糊决策方法解决农地城市流转的排序问题。研究得出:①主因素突出型与加权平均模型较适合对农地城市流转决策问题研究;②决策者依据不同的偏好,选取不同的决策因子,其决策的结果将不一样;③总体上看来,在以粮食安全为主要因素的情况下,主城区的地块将最后流转,具有农地优势的远城区的地块将最先流转。在以经济发展因子为主要准则的前提下,最先流转的应该是具有农地城市流转优势度的口区的农地,最后流转的是没有比较优势度的江岸区与汉阳区的农地。

Land conversion from rural to urban areas is common phenomenon in the process of urbanization and economic development. Better farmland of the urban-rural economic fringe is primly processed by urbanization under the driving of location and benefit. However, agricultural land is not only with use values but also non-use values. At the same time, land conversion from rural to urban areas is irreversible. We can say that land conversion from rural to urban areas is a cost in the process of urbanization to some extent. So, it is a most important task for our country to reduce the cost in order to to make scientific decision. Methods used in the paper are AHP and FUZZY mathematics. The conclusions are as follows： 1 ） Both the dominant- factor analysis and the weighted average models comparatively suit to study the decision-making of land conversion from rural to urban areas; 2）Land will be converted in different order if decision-maker selected the different decision standards ; 3） Generally, if decision-maker take the food safely as the primary factor, land of the main city finally will be converted, land of the far city will firstly be converted; if decision-maker take the economical development factor as the primary factor, land of Qiaokou district with the superiority of land conversion firstly will be converted and land of Jiangan and Hanyang districts without the superiority of land conversion will finally be converted.