摘要
笔者运用Markov区制转移模型,对中国内地与香港经济周期的区制状态以及两地经济周期的协同性进行了检验。结果显示:一方面,中国内地与香港经济周期均存在显著的三区制性质,即经济周期可划分为“低速”、“适速”和“高速”增长区制;另一方面,中国内地与香港经济周期的协同性水平偏低,并且存在依赖于区制状态的“门限性质”,即在不同的经济周期区制内呈现出不同的协同性水平。
This paper uses the Markov regime switching model to test the business cycle regimes and synchronization of China's Mainland and Hong Kong. The result indicates that on one hand the growth process can be divided into three regimes： ＂high growth regime＂, ＂ suitable growth regime＂ and ＂low growth regime＂, and on the other hand f the synchronization level between the two economies is low and the threshold effect which depends on regimes exists. That is, in different business cycle regimes the synchronization levels are different.
出处
《经济经纬》
CSSCI
北大核心
2007年第3期55-58,共4页
Economic Survey
基金
国家社科基金项目(05&ZD006)
关键词
经济周期
协同性
区制转移模型
门限性质
business cycle
synchronization
regime switching model
threshold effect
