用Kriging方法对中国历史气温数据插值可行性讨论

Discussion on Feasibility of Gridding the Historic Temperature Data in China with Kriging Method

使用Kriging插值方法对已经过质量控制和均一化的1951年1月—2004年12月中国全部基本、基准站气温资料逐月进行空间插值。通过站点的实际序列与插值后格点序列进行比较,针对相关系数和线性趋势等多个量来检验Kriging方法对气候资料插值的效果。结果表明:插值前、后的气温空间分布、气温变化趋势都非常一致,从年际变化来看,插值序列与实际站点序列的相关性也非常高。对比分析还发现用距平序列的插值效果要明显优于原始气温序列插值,但不同的球面模型半径插值在站点稀疏地区的插值结果差别较大,需要先对气候要素进行空间代表性进行分析,以合适的球面半径进行插值。对于气候变化比较特殊的地区,如中国西南部分地区,插值序列很难反映更小尺度的气候变化规律。

The Kriging method is used to conduct the spatial interpolation of surface air temperature dataset over China for each month from January 1951 to December 2004,and comparisons were made between interpolated and observed series. The results show that high correlations were detected between interpolated and original series, which proves that the interpolation of large scale historic climatic data is acceptable to some extent; and in interpolation, departure values in stead of origional values were recommended and 10 as the radius of the spherical model,which will improve the resultant series greatly, especially in station-sparse areas. While in some regions with particular local climate changes, it deserves more careful downscaling analysis and denser stations distribution.