不同显式方案模拟对流风暴的不确定性

Influence of Explicit Schemes on the Uncertainties of Numerically Simulated Idealized Convective Storm

利用MM5模式选取mixed phase、graupel(gsfc)、graupel(reisner2)和schultz 4种显式方案对理想的对流风暴进行水平分辨率为2 km的全显式数值模拟,分析不同显式方案模拟的对流风暴不确定性。结果表明:不同的显式方案模拟的对流风暴的最大垂直速度、水平结构和降水以及云物理量的演变都有很大的不确定性,说明要对实际降水进行全显式的数值预报可能需要对不同显式方案导致的预报结果的不确定性作出进一步的估计,集合预报中可能要考虑不同显式方案对预报结果不确定性的影响。

In the context of the non-hydrostatic MM5, the mixed ice phase, graupel （gsfc）, graupel （reisner2） and schultz schemes are used to explore the impact of explicit schemes of cloud precipitation on the uncertainties in the numerically simulated idealized convective storm with full explicit approach. The numerical results show that there are signicicant uncertainties in the evolution of horizontal structure, rain,cloud prognostic variables and thermal and dyinamical fields. Therefore, explicit forecasts of precipitation, especially ensemble prediction of precpitation, should be performed together with the estimation of different uncertainties of different explicit schemes.