德尔菲法在交叉学科研究评价中的运用

Delphi Technique in the Assessment of Interdisciplinary Research

德尔菲法是美国广泛应用的一种定性预测方法,其特点是专家组成员的权威性和匿名性、预测过程的有控趋同性、预测统计的定量性。将此方法运用到交叉学科研究评价中,在评价的准备过程中要遴选专家、成立决策分析小组;实施要分四步走;结果处理最常用的量化方法是将各种评估意见用打分法转为分值,然后再求出各种评估意见的概率分布。依据交叉学科研究评价的实际情况,克服德尔菲法的缺点,可以对德尔菲法的某些规则进行修正,既保持德尔菲法的基本特点,又改变德尔菲法的匿名、反馈等基本特征,并在处理预测结果时将交叉学科研究的某些特性作为加权数,使得预测范围更加接近交叉学科研究的现实。

Delphi technique, a widely used qualitative predicative method in the U. S., is characterized by the authority and anonymity of expert group members, the controlled convergence of predicative process and quantitative predicative statistics. When this technique is applied to interdisciplinary research, experts should be selected and decision-analyzing group be formed in the preparatory process; four steps should be made in the performance; and the result analysis demands the most frequently used quantitative method of changing assessment opinions into values and obtaining the probability distribution of every assessment opinion. According to the reality of interdisciplinary research assessment, the paper argues that some rules of Delphi technique should be rectified, Specifically, on the basis of retaining the basic feature of this technique, its anonymous quality and feedback may be altered and some special qualities of interdisciplinary research may be introduced as weighted factor into the handling of predicative result so that the range of predication can be closer to the reality of interdisciplinary research.