1996～2015年民用飞机中国市场预测

China Market Outlook for Civil Aircraft (1996-2015)

1996年秋,中国航空工业总公司航空系统工程研究所公布了1996～2015年民用飞机中国市场预测年报.该报告由郭忱、王可、刘文胜完成.预测结果包括中长期中国民航运输业发展趋势,中国民用客机、货机机队发展规模,现役飞机退役预测以及民用客机的净需求量.该报告还对国外航空运输市场及民用飞机需求作了定性分析.在此,本刊仅摘选其主要预测结果,供读者参考.

In Autum 1996, China Institute of Aeronautic System Engineering under AVIC published the latest assessment of China ' s civil aircraft market from1996 to 2015. It includes outlook for medium and long term growth of China airline industry, scale of passenger and cargo aircraft fleet, aircraft retirement and passenger aircraft requirement. Over the next 20 years, China ' s economy will keep its trend of sustained growth . To keep pace with the enhancement of nation ' s economic strength, the airline industry will continueto expand fast. It is expected that the revenue passenger-kilometers will soar at an annual average growth rate of 11. 5% from 1996 to 2015. Up to the year 2015, the 150-seat aircraft will be main force in the whole fleet. The number of total passenger aircraft will reach 2057, among which 1693 unitswill be large and medium-sized jet aircraft, 364 units will be small aircraft . In this period totally 2098 aircraft will be required to add into the industry' s fleet, among which 1693 units will be large and medium-sized jet aircraft, 405 units will be small aircraft. The number of total cargo aircraft will reach 112 by the year 2015.