竞争环境下航空公司航线市场份额的预测方法

Methods for Forecasting Airlines' Air Routes Market Share in Competitive Environment

分析了在竞争环境下,影响航空公司航线市场份额的因素,从机型、票价和航班时刻3个主要影响因素出发研究了航空公司市场份额预测的方法,通过对实际航线进行调查,分别得出该航线上的旅客对于机型、票价和航班时刻3个主要影响因素的偏好度,以及目前该航线上各家航空公司的航班安排情况,最终预测出各家航空公司在该条航线上的市场份额。

This paper analyzes the factors affecting air routes market share of airlines in a competitive environment and researches the forecasting method by considering airplane type,fare and flight time. Through investigating into a specific air route,we obtain the passengers＇ bias to airplane type,fare and flight time as well as how differ ent airlines arrange their flights on the air route. Finally the airlines＇ air routes market share are forecast.