货币政策有效性理论模型与多重经验实证

Model of the Validity of Monetary Policy and Its Empirical Test

运用历史方法,梳理了货币政策理论“肯定-否定-肯定”的演进历程。以货币政策目标作为解释变量建立了中国货币政策有效性理论模型并相应进行了经验实证,其结论是:1984-1997年,中国经济持续高速发展,但伴有严重的通货膨胀;1998-2004年,由于受东南亚金融危机的影响,中国经济运行面临面临通货紧缩的压力。目前,经济运行中通胀与通缩交织并存,继续实施积极的财政政策与稳健的货币政策的操作空间已不是很大,值得高度重视。

In this paper, we use historical method to clarify the ＂affirmation-denial-affirmation＂ evolution course of the monetary policy theory, and take the target of the monetary policy as an explanatory variable and sets up a model of the effectiveness of Chinese monetary policy. The conclusion is that from 1984 to 1997, the Chinese economy grew at a constant and high rate, but with serious inflation; from 1998 to 2004, then it was faced with deflation pressure under the influence of Southeast Asia financial crisis. At present, the inflation and deflation coexist in the economy, so we have to direct great attention to the fact that there will be little operating space to continue to implement the positive fiscal policy and the steady monetary policy.