陕西省人口迁移与人口城市化系统动力学分析

Analysis on System dynamics of Population Migration and Population Urbanization in Shaanxi Province

采用系统动力学方法,对陕西省人口迁移和人口城市化水平进行了分析,建立了人口城市化水平预测模型,通过系统的仿真分析发现:城乡收入差距加大会引起农村向城市大量的人口迁移,从而加快城市化进程;科技水平对城乡人口迁移有明显的影响作用;提高劳动生产率时,会引起城乡人口迁移规模的减小,对人口城市化水平起到一定的限制作用,但降低劳动生产率只能在短期内促进农村人口向城市的迁移,长期来看,并不能提高城市化水平;当对农村土地的占有采取严格控制时,对人口迁移具有一定的阻止作用;当农村人口自然增长率上升时,城乡之间的迁移人口会有所增加,而人口城市化水平有所下降。

By using the method of system dynamics, an analysis on the population migration and population urbanization in Shaanxi Province is made and a prediction model of the population urbanization level is constructed. From systematic simulation analysis, it has been revealed that the growth of the difference of income between urban and rural areas will give rise to the massive migration of the rural population to cities, thus speeding up the process of urbanization; the scientific and technological level imposes expressed impact on the migration between rural and urban areas; when the labor productivity is raised, this will result in the reduction of the scale of the rural and urban population migration, thus posing a given influence on the population urbanization level. However, the lowering of labor production is only able to boost the rural population migration to cities, and this cannot raise the urbanization level in the long run. When the land in rural areas is subject to strict control, there will be a definite inhibition effect on the population migration. When the natural growth rate of the rural population increases, the migrating population between rural and urban areas will be augmented to some degree and the population urbanization level will be reduced somewhat.