中国区域经济增长σ趋同分析

A Study on the σ Convergence of Regional Economic Growth in China

根据钱纳里工业化阶段划分标准,本文把中国大陆各省市区分为初级产品生产区域、工业化初级阶段区域、工业化中级阶段区域和工业化高级阶段区域。以此为区域框架,检验1978-2005年中国区域经济增长是否发生了σ趋同,并分析导致σ趋同的原因。结果表明,全国区域经济增长没有发生σ趋同;初级产品生产区域和工业化中级阶段区域发生了明显的σ趋同,工业化高级阶段区域发生了微弱的σ趋同,工业化初级阶段区域则基本上没有发生σ趋同。区域之间劳动生产率差异的变化是影响区域经济增长是否发生σ趋同的主要原因,二者之间呈正相关关系;区域之间就业率差异的变化对区域经济增长是否发生σ趋同虽有影响但相关性不大。因此,促使区域经济增长发生σ趋同主要依赖于缩小各省市区之间的劳动生产率差异;如果劳动生产率与就业率差异同时缩小,则更有利于区域经济增长发生σ趋同,缩小区域经济差异。

According to H σ Chenery＇s standards on dividing industrializing stages,this paper divides the provinces in China into four kinds of regions, that is, region of yielding fundamental production, region of primarily industrializing stage, region of intermediately industrializing stage and region of advanced industrializing stage. With this regional setting and the method of quantitative analysis, this paper verifies whether there was σ convergence of regional economic growth in China from 1978 to 2005, and if so, what induced it. The main conclusions are as follows. There was no σ convergence on the whole China from 1978 to 2005. There was distinct σ convergence in the region of yielding fundamental production and the region of intermediately industrializing stage. However, the σ convergence in the region of advanced industrializing stage was faint. There was almost no σ convergence in the region of primarily industrializing stage. The change of the diversity of regional labor productivity was the main reason affecting the variation of regional economic disparities. The change of the diversity of regional employment rate also caused the variation of regional economic disparities, but was not noticeable. Therefore, prompting σ convergence of regional economic growth depends mainly on reducing the diversity of labor productivity among provinces. If the differences of employment rates among provinces reduce simultaneously, it will be more advantageous to cause the σ convergence of regional economic growth.