中国纺织工业发展预测及安全度估算

Study on Development Forecast and Security Degree of Chinese Textile Industry during the "11th Five-Year Plan" period

针对纺织工业系统的复杂性和多样性,构建了一系列灰色预测模型,对我国纺织工业“十一五”期间的供求及进出口情况进行了预测。在此基础上,通过设置产业安全评价指标和产业指标安全度预警界限,对中国纺织工业的产业安全度进行了估算,并分析了其在“十一五”期间的动态变化趋势。

This paper is based on the complexity and diversity of Chinese textile system. It aims at constructing a series of gray models according to the supply and demand, import and export and so on. Besides, having setting up a wanning limit to the index of safety evaluation, it estimates the level of textile industry security degree. Meanwhile, it analyzes the dynamic variation tendency of Chinese textile industry security during the period of ＂the 11th Five - Year Plan＂.