摘要
在分析R&D项目技术和市场不确定性分布特征的基础上,提出多步骤四项式期权定价模型,用于R&D项目进展评估.探讨了当出现不可预见信息时,对采取的多个管理决策的选择问题.实例分析表明,多步骤四项式模型能灵敏地监测项目的单因素变化引起的项目投资价值的变化,对管理的灵活性和不确定性能进行量化处理,在很大程度上提高了R&D中期投资决策的准确性.
Besed on the analysis of technology and market uncertainty of R＆D project, a multi-step quadranomial option pricing model is presented for valuing an ongoing R＆D project. By comparing R＆D project investment value of different flexible decision, the decision is optimized when unforeseen information comes. The real case analysis indicates that multi-step quadranomial model can monitor the change of R＆D project investment value subject to the sensitive change of key factor. Accuracy of investment decision of ongoing R＆D project under uncertainty is improved by the model.
出处
《控制与决策》
EI
CSCD
北大核心
2007年第5期494-498,504,共6页
Control and Decision
基金
国家哲学社会科学创新基地项目(htcsrobt07)
关键词
R&D项目
进展评估
多步骤四项式定价模型
实物期权
R＆D project
Value ongoing R＆D project
Multi-step quadranomial option pricing model
Real option
