欧元汇率波动对我国出口影响的实证分析

Demonstration Analysis on the Effect of Euro Exchange rate volatility on China Export

我国对欧元区国家的出口由欧元启动时的224.3亿美元增长到2004年的810.6亿美元,随着欧元的逐步稳定,欧元也已成为我国贸易的主要结算货币之一。本文借鉴“引力模型”,以同一时期,欧元对多个国家货币的汇率波动程度为研究对象,考察欧元汇率波动对我国出口的影响。实证结果表明,欧元名义汇率波动总体上对我国出口并没有阻碍作用,这为我国的汇率制度改革留下了很大的调整空间。

When EURO was started up, China＇s export to EURO countries was 224.3 billion dollars. When it was to 2004, the number increased to 810.6 billion dollars. With the stabilization of EURO, it has been one of chief balancing currency of China international trade. By using ＂Gravitation Model＂, this paper taking the volatility of the exchange rate between EURO and several other currencies in the same period as sample, studies its influence on export of China. The result shows that,the volatility of the nominal exchange rate of EURO doesn＇t counteract china＇s export as a whole. It means that the reformation of china＇s exchange rate system has much room to adjust.