经济增长和周期理论扬弃、模型再造与中国适用——“十一五”经济增长速度与波动区间分析

The Proof to Economic Cycle,Model Rebuilding and the Increase Fluctuation of China's Economy

战后经济增长理论大体经历了三个发展阶段;而增长周期分析理论则大体经历了两个发展阶段。发达国家经济学家经济增长及周期分析理论虽然基本没有完全脱离实际,但都存在片面性,因此必须依据马克思的思维方式才能建立起科学的经济增长与周期分析模型。增长及周期性研究目的在于理论联系实际指导中国的具体经济增长,通过分析影响一定时期经济的适度速度、波动区间及持续时间,规划投资、消费与外贸,才能实现增长方式的转变,推进经济适度快速和时间持续。

Though the economic increase cycle theories in developed countries hardly lose contact with reality, there exists some one-sideness in them, and therefore, Marxist＇s thought should be followed in order to build a scientific model to analyze economic increase and periods. The purpose of the research is to guide the concrete economic increase via integration of theory with practice. Only by analyzing the speed, the fluctuation inter-region and continuality which influence China＇s economy as well as investment, and consumption and foreign trade within planned periods, can the proper economic rapid increase and continuality be advanced.