中国医疗卫生行业发展影响因素的提炼与甄别

Refining and Discrimination of Influence Factors of Medical Industry Development in China

关于卫生行业发展影响因素的现有研究多数基于定性分析,而实证研究较少。为从静态和动态两个角度将经济社会发展对卫生行业发展的制约关系进行量化与应用研究,建立多元线性回归模型和ARMA(1,1)模型将社会经济因素对卫生行业发展的影响程度和影响方向进行提炼与甄别,结果表明:人均收入水平、财政卫生支出是影响中国卫生服务业发展的两个主要因素,城乡收入比和人口老龄化对卫生行业发展的影响还不是很显著。

The contemporary studies about Medical Industry are mostly based on qualitative analysis and the quantitative studies are quite few. In order to make quantitative and practical research about the effect of social and economic elements on the health industry, this paper uses the Models of Multiple Regression and ARMA（1,1） to refine and to discriminate the influence factors about medical industry so as to examine the effect of the social and economical factors on the health industry development. The results show that government budget health expenditure and per capita revenue are the main elements affecting health industry, the effect of aging population and the income ratio of town against country on health industry is not conspicuous.