中国商业银行盈利能力的实证分析

An Empirical Analysis on the Profitability of China's Commercial Banks

商业银行盈利能力的大小是衡量其效率高低的主要指标。近年来,理论界从商业银行的规模经济、成本效率来研究中国商业银行效率的文献较多,而对中国商业银行盈利能力的研究则较少。对中国14家商业银行1994-2003年期间的盈利能力进行财务指标对比分析,发现中国四大国有商业银行的ROE、ROA明显低于10家股份制商业银行;利用计量经济学方法对中国商业银行的盈利能力与市场结构、银行产权性质关系进行回归分析,结果发现中国商业银行的盈利能力与其存款市场份额、存款资产比之间存在负相关关系,与其银行产权性质存在正相关关系。因此,建立和完善中国商业银行法人治理结构是提高其盈利能力的关键。

The profitability of commercial banks is the main indicator to measure their efficiency. In recent years, there is much literature in theoretical circle that studies the efficiency of Chinese commercial banks from the aspects of the economies of scale and cost benefit of commercial banks. But there is little literature to study the profitability of China＇s commercial banks. This article firstly contrasts and analyzes the financial indicators such as the profitability of 14 commercial banks from 1994 to 2003 and finds that the ROE and ROA of four state-owned commercial banks are clearly lower than those of ten stockholding commercial banks; Meanwhile, it undertakes regression analysis to the relationship between the profitability of commercial banks and the market structure and the nature of banks＇ property right by econometric method. The results indicate that positive correlation exists between the profitability of commercial banks and the market share of their deposit and the ratio between deposit and asset, and negative correlation exists between the profitability of commercial banks and the nature of banks＇ property right. Therefore, establishing and perfecting the corporate governances of Chinese commercial banks is the key to raising their profitability.