中国货币非中性实证分析

An Empirical Analysis on Currency Non-neutrality in China

选取货币供应量、国内生产总值和价格水平等变量,基于1996年第一季度到2006年第三季度的季度数据时间序列,运用协整、误差修正、脉冲响应等数量方法分析中国货币非中性问题,结果表明在中国无论短期还是长期,货币都呈现非中性,货币供给成内生性,长期中促进了中国经济的发展。

By selecting money supply, GDP and price as variables, using co- integration, ECM, impulse response function and other models, and based on seasonal time series, the article analyzes currency non- neutrality in China. The results of the paper show that whether in short- term or long- term, money supply trends to be non - neutral and endogenous. It promotes economy development of China in the long run.