我国高额外汇储备的负效应及对策研究

On the Negative Effects of China's Excessive Foreign Exchange Reserve and Policy Suggestions

在开放经济条件下,外汇储备是考察一国对外经济关系的重要指标。近年来,我国外汇储备快速增长,尤其自2002年以后呈现超速增长态势。根据国际上外汇储备适度规模理论,我国外汇储备无论从总量还是增量来说,都已超出国际公认的常规标准。分析了我国这种高额外汇储备对宏观经济所带来的负面影响,包括加大人民币升值压力,加剧国内通货膨胀压力,影响货币政策的调控,不利于宏观经济平衡,增大了储备风险和汇率风险等。提出了扩展外汇资金运用方式,调整外汇储备的币种结构,完善公开市场业务等应对策略。

Foreign exchange reserve（FER）, as a key index, is of vital importance to China＇s economic relations with foreign countries. In recent years, China＇s FER has been keeping on increasing at a high speed especially after 2002. According to the international standard of moderate reserve holdings, China＇s FER has been obviously excessive in view of either total volume or increment. Discusses the negative effects of excessive reserve on macroeconomic management, e. g., the increasing pressure due to RMB appreciation, expediting domestic inflation, making unfavorable readjustment of monetary policy and heightening risks of reserve and exchange rate. Some policy suggestions are therefore offered including extending the application scope of exchange funds, changing FER monetary structure and perfecting open market operation.