平均化验检查费用增长情况的时间序列分析

THE EXPENSES ANALYSIS OF LABORATORY EXAMINATION BY THE AUTO REGRESSION TIME SERIES MODEL

目的分析化验检查费用的变化情况，为加强化验检查费用的科学管理提供参考数据。方法以我院检验科1994年1月～2006年6月平均化验检查费的统计数据为样本，采用自回归线性模型时间序列分析法对我院平均化验检查费用的变化情况进行分析。结果1994年1月～2006年6月我院平均化验检查费用沿逐年上升的趋势波动，12年来平均化验检查费用约上涨3．2倍。该模型对2006年1～6月我院平均化验检查费用估计值的相对误差为1．03％～3．44％；根据模型分析，我院2006年下半年的平均化验检查费仍将趋缓慢上涨。结论采用时间序列分析方法分析和预测平均化验检查费的变化趋势能为医疗费用的总体控制和医疗改革工作提供有益的参考信息。

Objective To analysis the fee of laboratory examination service for patients in order to provide some data for implement scientific management and control of laboratory examination expenses. Method The auto regression time series model was established and evaluated based on the average expenses of laboratory examination from Jan, 1994 to Jun, 2006 in a large - scale hospital of Beijing. Result The average expenses of laboratory examination fluctuated along the trend risen from Jan, 1994 to Jun, 2006 and increased about 3.2 times since Jan, 1994. It may continually rise slowly in the next half year of 2006 according to this model. The errors of prediction on the average expenses of laboratory examination from Jan to Jun of 2006 are around 1.03 % -3.44% by means of this model. Conclusion It is practical to apply the approach of time series model predict the average expense of the laboratory examination and it will provide some instructively information for the scientific control of medical eest and modieal system reform.