人类健康风险的定量评估与分析

Quantitive Evaluation and Analysis on Human Health Risk

通过深入研究．将人类健康风险解析环境污染、食物安全、疾病流行和医疗保障四个方面。在建立一套评价人类健康风险指标体系的基础上。对40个样本国家进行评估。用聚类分析的方法．将40个国家分为四类，在对每一类国家的人类健康风险特点进行对比发现，在同等经济发展水平下，中国的人类健康风险相对较高。通过分析人类健康风险与经济发展水平的关系得出,人均GNI 1000，3000美元是国家经济发展的关键时期。同样也是改善人类健康状况的关键时期，这一时期国家要高度重视改善人类健康状况。

The human health condition is related to economic and social development of a country and the whole world. We proposed that the influence factors of health risk contain environment pollution, food security, disease threat and health care condition. Indicators system is put forward in the paper. Based on the foundation of the indicators system, 40 countries were chosen to evaluate the condition of the human health risk. With the method of Hierarchical Cluster Analysis, 40 countries were divided into four groups, and we analyzed the characteristic of each group. Compared with other countries at the similar development level of economy, the human health risk of China is much higher. We analyzed the correlation between human health risk and economy development level, and then we concluded that country should attach importance to improving the condition of the human health, when the GNI per capita is between 1000 and 3000 dollars. The stage is vital for economy development, and also for improvement of the human health condition. We found that countries with high human health risk are mostly in Africa and Asia. The developed countries should help the developing countries reduce the human health risk for the win - win situation of the development of the whole humanity.