三峡库区城镇建设用地驱动因子路径分析

Path Analyses of Driving Forces of Urban Constructive Land in Three Gorges

随着三峡大坝的修建,三峡经济飞速发展,带动了利用三峡库区城镇建设用地的变化。本文以三峡库区21个县市1995-2005年城镇建设用用地的变化量为主要研究对象,结合1995-2005年期间第二产业与第三产业的集中指数与区位商的空间分布变化,采用路径分析建模的方法,建立了城镇建设用地与固定资产投资、社会商品零售总额、第二产值、第三产值及城镇人口的路径模型,确定了各影响因子对蜮镇建设用地变化的影响程度,其中第二产值对城镇建设用地的变化影响最大,影响力最小的是城镇人口。此项研究进一步验证了路径分析模型在土地利用变化驱动力分析研究中的可行性,同时也为库区城镇建设用地的控制提供了参考。

With building of Three Gorges Dam, the Three Gorges reservoir, especially the economy of Three Gorges reservoir has been attracted more attention, This paper takes the urban constructive land in 1995 and 2005 as the research object. During past 10 years the area of urban constructive land has increased 10230.21 hm^2, The paper uses the dynamic degree of urban constructive land to analyze the changing speed, then adopts the concentration index and location quotient to research the change of the second industry and the third industry, and lastly analyzes the change of urban constructive land and the change of the value of the second industry, the value of the third industry, the capital investment, the value of commodity selling and the urban population, and the path analyses model determining the influential extent of different driving factors. The result indicates that the value of the second industry is the biggest influential factor and the urban population is the smallest one, This research is helpful to the planning and controlling of urban constructive land and proves that the path analyses is feasible in the research of land use change.