可持续发展环境约束条件下的水资源最优配置及实证研究

Optimal Allocation Model and Its Empirical Research of Water Resources under Environmental and Sustainable Constraints

在相关理论分析和Weber模型的基础上,拓展建立了面向水资源可持续发展的水资源最优配置模型,引入了基于政府管制的影响作用、沿河流域的水用户的实际消耗水量、实际排放水量、河流中可供使用水量及所排放污水水质水平等5个变量函数,通过政府管制下的水质和水量的河道内流量需求等环境约束条件,确保水资源利用始终满足最小基流水量。通过求最优解,计算得出在环境约束下达到最优配置时各个变量函数与对下游地区外部性之间的相关性。接着,本文对陕北黄土高原沿Y河的35家企业进行了实际调查,收集了2个年度共8个季度的观测值,应用计量经济Panel Data模型,对35个节点、8个季度的共280个数据作为混合样本进行经济计量分析,验证了相关结论。最后,还提出一些制定环境约束条件以及水用户间建立水资源环境生态补偿金机制等政策建议。

Based on analyses of related theories and Weber＇ s model, this paper expands and constitutes an optimal allocation model about water flow and water pollution along a river aiming at sustainable development of water resources. There are five variables, such as the influence factors of government regulation, the flow of water consumed, the flow of water available, the level of water quality and the amount of discharged polluted water and so on. Through the government regulation and supervision, the Iustream Flow Need （IFN） of water quality and quantity are guaranteed. It calculates the relativity of all variables and the externalities of downstream users at the optimum solution. Then, it has an empirical research by collecting data of 35 enterprises along Y River on the Shaanbei Loess Plateau. Several methods are applied such as spot field investigation of actual consumption, questionnaires, social investigation of specialists, as well as collecting other data. One of the econometrical methods - panel data model is applied to analyze the pooled sample which including 280 specimen of all these data as well as testifying theoretic results. Some suggestions are put forward, including how to frame sustainable constraints, to compensate water ecosystem services in market between upstream and downstream water consumer and so on.