美国服务业的经济“稳定器”作用及其对中国的启示

Contribution of Service Sector to the Business Cycles Stabilization and Its Implication to China

近二十年来,美国宏观经济波动逐渐趋于稳定,同时其服务业比重也在不断提高,本文从实证分析的角度探讨了这两种经济现象之间是否存在着必然的联系。结果表明,服务业的增加值和就业增长率的波动幅度几乎相当于工业波动的二分之一,同时,服务业的相对波动性也小于国民经济的,而工业的相对波动性则大于国民经济的波动性,所以服务业对国民经济确实具有“稳定器”作用。这对我国具有一定的启示意义。

Business cycles have become more stable in USA in the past twenty years, and at the same time the increasing and constant process of tertiarisation of their economy has appeared. The paper pays attention to relationships between business cycles and service industries growth. Our empirical study indicates that the volatilities of the growth rate of value added and employment of service sector are equivalent to half of the ones of industrial sector similarly. The volatility of the whole economy is between service sector′s and industrial sector′s. So the conclusion is that service sector contributes to the business cycles stabilization, which is reference for China.