河南省入境旅游市场发展规律与趋势分析

Research on the Regularity of the Inbound Tourism Market Demand and Prediction of Its Prospects in Henan

以河南省为例,运用定量分析方法,从数量规模、聚集态、价格需求弹性等方面探讨省域入境旅游市场需求发展规律,得出河南入境旅游市场发展速度相对缓慢,旅游价格富于弹性等规律。运用回归预测模型,根据河南省1990年到2002年共13年的数据进行历史趋势外推,发现河南省入境旅游市场今后10年的市场规模发展速度仍然处于全国低谷区,而入境旅游消费能力发展态势相对较好。

By using the quantitative analysis method, the regularity of Henan Province＇s inbound tourism market demand develepment is studied from the aspects of quantity scale, gathering appearance, price demand flexibility, and so on. The results show a regularity of slow market development and flexble price. Then the model of return prediction is used to make a prediction of its prospects according to the relevant data from 1990-2002. It is found out that the developing speed of the province＇ s inbound tourism market scale will still be one of the lowest nationwide, while there will be a better prospect in tourisl consumption capacity.