全球升温下中国温度区域变化的稳定性

Regional stability of temperature change across China under global warming

利用中国气象中心160站点的气温观测资料,对中国20世纪后半期的气温变化进行方差分析,结果发现气温变化幅度有显著的纬度效应:纬度越高,方差值越大,说明气温变化的幅度也越大。在季节上,气温变化幅度差异显著,普遍是冬季大,夏季小。气温变化幅度的纬度效应在区域分布上,冬季的纬度效应出现在35°N以北,35°N以南不存在纬度效应;夏季的纬度效应表现在34°N以南,34°N以北没有明显的纬度效应。30°N～35°N之间的地带是冬夏季节差异最小的地带,从这一地带开始,不管往南还是往北,气温变化的季节差异都趋于增大。这种格局与我国升温的区域分布是一致的,说明我国最近半个世纪以来的气温变化是持续升高的。最后对气温变化的区域差别进行了机制上的探讨。

The variation of temperature series of 160 stations in China is analyzed to find the stability of regional temperature variation under global warming in the later half of the 20th century. Results show that there is a significant latitude effect in the temperature variation： the higher the latitude, the larger the variation magnitude, indicating a larger temperature variation extent in the higher latitude; seasonally, there is larger variation magnitude in winter than in summer. And there is a marked latitude effect of temperature variation in north of 35°N （in winter） and south of 34°N （in summer）. The smallest difference of temperature variation between winter and summer lies in the belt of 30-35°N. Beginning from that belt, the temperature variation magnitude turns larger in both directions between summer and winter.