海峡两岸经济整合的量化评价

Quantitative Evaluation of Economic Conformity between China's Mainland and Taiwan

基于多层次综合指标体系与熵技术支持下的层次分析法所综合集成的两岸经济整合指数,是度量与分析海峡两岸经济整合程度与演变情况的有力工具。结果显示:海峡两岸经济整合经历了从物——资金——人员不断升级的演变过程,目前已进入包括物流、资金流与人流等多种经济要素共同推动的整合阶段,但还处于功能性整合层次。两岸经济整合是受比较利益驱动、由民间自发形成的,两岸政治关系是其向更高层次发展的最大障碍。当前两岸经济整合已处于制度性整合的临界点,两岸经济制度性整合的前景可以期待。

Economic conformity index between China's Mainland and Taiwan, which is derived from multi-layered synthetic index system and AHP method sustained by entropy technology, is a powerful approach to evaluating and analyzing the development of economic conformity across the Taiwan Straits. Our research shows that it has evolved through three stages： material, capital, and personnel. Now a new phase of eonfomaity has been brought about by multi-economic factors such as the flows of material, capital, and people, though it is still at the level of functional conformity. Driven by relative benefits, economic conformity between China's Mainland and Taiwan evolved with a distinctive folk nature, and political relations across the Straits constitute the biggest obstacle to its development at a higher, more optimal level. It has eurrendy come very close to the critical point of institutional conformity which can be expected in the foreseeable future.