国际贸易与中国的实际经济周期——基于封闭与开放经济的RBC模型比较分析

International Trade and the Real Business Cycle of China——A Comparative RBC Study in a Closed vs.an Open Economy

本文先确定中国宏观经济波动的特征事实:消费波动与产量高度相关、投资波动大于产出的波动、净出口与GDP呈反周期变化。然后分别用封闭经济模型、小国开放经济模型和考虑了政府购买冲击的小国开放经济模型对中国经济进行实证检验。研究发现,封闭经济模型仅能解释产出、消费和投资波动的48.26%、24.39%和98.50%;而小国开放经济模型分别可以解释68.70%、69.51%、98.50%和TB/GDP率的97.42%;考虑了政府购买的小国开放经济模型的解释程度分别是83.91%、81.95%、99.63%和TB/GDP率的209.68%。比较分析表明开放经济模型比封闭经济模型能较好地解释中国的经济现象,并且随着政府购买引入到开放经济模型,该模型对经济的解释能力显著提高,说明这一模型更符合中国经济的特征事实。

This thesis first displays the stylized facts of China＇s macroeeonomic fluctuations： its consumption is highly correlated with GDP, investment fluctuates more than output, and net export is countercyclical. It constructs 3 RBC models of a closed economy, a small open economy and a small open economy with government sector. Our simulation results from these models show that the first model of closed economy explains about 48.26% , 24.39cA and 98.50% of real fluctuations in output, consumption and investment respectively; results from a small open economy are 69.51%, 68.70% , 98.50% with a trade-balance-to-GDP ratio of 97.42% ; the best results come from a small open economy with government purchase, they are 83.91% ,81.95%, 99.63% with a trade-balance-to-GDP ratio of 209.68% . Overall, open-economy model performs better than closed ones and an open economy with government purchase shock performs better than an open economy without it. The introduction of government purchase shock into the model greatly improves simulation results.