2007年一季度债市运行回顾与操作建议

Bond market in Q1 2007 and operation recommendations

文章回顾了2007年以来银行间债市的运行特点,探讨了两税合并等热点问题对债券市场的影响,认为上半年债市将呈震荡整理格局,但6月份之后会趋于乐观。在策略上,建议继续缩短债券组合久期,并关注央票招标利率变化带来的短线套利机会。

This paper reviews the operational features of the interbank bond market in the first quarter of 2007, and analyzes the impact of such hot issues as ＂two-tax merger＂ on the bond market. The author believes that the bond market may show a pattern of adjustment amid fluctuations in the first half of the year, and turn optimistic after June. As for strategy, this paper suggests continually cutting the duration of the bond portfolio and paying attention to the short-term hedging opportunities derived from changes in the bidding interest rate of central bank papers.