农作物病虫害发生发展气象条件及预报方法研究综述

Review on Research of Meteorological Conditions and Prediction Methods of Crop Disease and Insect Pest

从影响病虫害发生发展的气象条件和预报方法两个方面,对农作物病虫害发生发展气象预报进行了综述。其中,从病虫害发生发展与大尺度气候背景、中小尺度气象要素之间的关系概述了病虫害发生发展的气象条件研究的最新进展;从数理统计法、模糊数学、灰色系统方法、人工神经网络方法、“3S”技术方法五个方面概述了病虫害发生发展的气象预报研究的最新进展,指出了常规预报方法存在的问题和难点,并对该项研究今后的发展方向进行了展望。

The research on the meteorological prediction of crop disease and insect pest development was summarized in two aspects, e.g. meteorological conditions causing the crop disease and insect pest and methods of meteorological prediction. The recent developments of researches in meteorological conditions causing disease and insect pest were summed up by studying relations between the development of disease and insect pest and meteorological factors on the large-, medium- and small-scale meteorological backgrounds. The progresses on meteorological prediction were summed up in mathematical statistics, fuzzy mathematics, grey system, artificial neural network and 3S technique. The problems and difficulties existed in these methods were discussed. The further research needed was prospected as well.