中国国际资本流动的经济增长效应分析——基于CGE方法

An Analysis of the Effects of the Economic Development of China's International Capital Circulation——Based on the CGE Method

通过建立开放经济条件下的CGE模型来分析国际资本流动的经济增长效应,具有重要意义。研究结果表明:国际资本净流出对宏观经济的冲击比国际资本净流入要大得多。而国际资本净流入会导致国内总产出增加,以及出口、国内产出在国内市场的供给增加;会导致进口总量减少、进口商品国际价格的上涨;会使实际汇率贬值,出口数量增加;会导致通货膨胀的压力加大;也会导致家庭消费、家庭储蓄、政府储蓄、家庭收入、政府收入的增加。

It is of great significance to analyze the economic growth effects of international capital circulation by forming the CGE Pattern under the condition of opened- up CGE Method economy. The research shows that the impact of the net in-floating of international capital on macro economy is much greater than the net out-floating of the capital. The net in-floating of international capital leads to the general growth at home, the growth of the domestic market supply of domestic production, and the import aggregates will be decreased while the international prices of imported commodities will go up. The actual exchange rate will be depreciated and the volume of export will expand. The pressure of currency inflation will be enlarged. There will also be an increase in family consumption, deposit and income and governmental deposit and income.