中国服务业发展:宏观影响因素与优化策略——基于时间序列数据的实证分析

The Services Industry Development of China: Macroeconomic Factors and Optimization Strategies——The Empirical Analysis Based On Time Series Data

本文选取1978-2004年间我国服务业发展的相关数据,通过计量经济模型进行实证分析。得出的主要结论是:影响我国服务业发展的主要宏观因素是国内生产总值中用于最终消费的部分、对服务业的基本建设投资和交通运输条件的发达程度。另外劳动力等要素虽是必要投入,但并不显著的影响服务业的发展,在此基础上本文提出了优化我国服务业发展的策略建议。

In this article,we chose the data which related to the Services Industry of China between 1978 and 2004,alter that,we conducted the empirical analysis through the econometric models. The main conclusions of our study are these： the main macroeconomic factors that influenced the development of China Services Industry are the part of GDP that used for final consumption,the capital investment for Services and the advanced degree of transportation;in addition, although some factors such as the labors are necessary inputs, they do not notably influenced the development of the Services. Finally,we put forward some optimization strategies for the purpose of optimizing the Services development of China.