时间序列平滑法在产品产量预测中的应用

Applications of time series smoothing method in the prediction of product output

应用收益法进行企业价值评估必须对企业的未来收益进行预测。如何科学地预测企业的未来收益,始终是企业价值评估中的难点。而产品产量(销量)的预测又是企业未来收益预测的基础。本文介绍了布朗单一参数线性指数平滑法、霍特双参数指数平滑法、布朗三参数指数平滑法及温特线性和季节性指数平滑法四种时间序列平滑法在产品产量预测中的应用,并对这四种方法的适用范围进行了总结。

It is necessary to predict the future income of enterprises in the income capitalization method. However it is hard to give out the rational future income. The paper introduces the four methods of Time series smoothing, Brown single parameter linear exponential smoothing method, Holt double parameters exponential smoothing method, Brown three parameters exponential smoothing method, Winter linear and seasonable exponential smoothing method, and further summarizes their application scopes.