电子产品失效率的Bayes估计

Bayes Estimation of Invalid Rates in the Exponential Distributions

电子元件失效率是安全联锁系统可靠性指标计算的重要基础。本文采用Bayes方法,对寿命分布服从指数分布的电子产品的失效率进行估算,推导了失效率点估计计算的公式。这种方法能够充分结合文献数据和工程试验数据,提高失效率的估算精度。算例表明该方法实用性强,有较好的的工程指导作用。

The failure rate of electronic component is the basis of the calculation of the reliability indices of the safety instrumented system. In this paper, evaluation method of invalid rates for the exponential distributions are proposed, based on the exact Bayes estimators considering the combination of the literature data and test data. The literature data and the test data are fully combined by the proposed method, which improve the accuracy of the estimation of the invalid rates. The results show that the proposed method is of good practicability and guidance in practice.