大连沿海冬季表层低水温的趋势预报方法研究

The Study on the Low Water Temperature Tendency Prediction Method of Dalian Winter Coastal Surface Layer

运用谱分析方法研究了大连沿海冬季表层水温自身变化规律以及它同厄尔尼诺现象间的相互关系，在此基础上提出了“厄尔尼诺指数曲线积分法”。用它对大连沿海冬季表层最低水温作了趋势预报。通过回报和预报的检验。

On the basis of studying of regularity of changes of Dalian winter coastal surface layer water temperature itself and its relations with the EI nino phenomenon by means of the spectral analysis, the authors put forward an EI nino index curve integration method, and by using it they made a tendency prediction on Dalian winter coastal surface layer water temperature. It was proved to have higher accuracy through re prediction and prediction.