中国石油需求增长正处在加速期

Accelerated increase in China's oil demand

石油需求预测是一项重要的基础性研究。通过对部分国家石油需求发展过程的研究发现,石油需求的增长大致呈现卧S型走势,发展过程可以划分为开始期、加速期、转折期、减速期、饱和期五个阶段。基于对各个阶段的石油需求特点和决定因素的分析和归纳,结合当前中国经济状况(发展程度、经济结构、经济增长速度)、中国汽车市场的发展现状以及石油需求增长的特点,认为目前中国石油需求增长正处在加速期。预期未来一段时间中国石油需求仍将较快增长,但需求增速将低于以往多数同样处在加速期的国家;“十二五”期间中国石油需求增长将进入转折期。运用趋势法、弹性系数法以及综合法预测,2010年中国石油需求量将达到4.55亿吨,2007-2010年年均增长6.5%。

Oil demand forecasting is a basic research tool in the search for oil market development trends. Research on the changes in oil demand in some countries reveals that oil demand over time follows a horizontal S-shaped curve over the five stages of pioneer, growth, transition, slowdown and saturation. By comparing the characteristics of China's economic development (in terms of level, structure and growth rate) , automotive market and China's current increase in oil demand against the features and determinants of the five stages, the author concludes that China is experiencing accelerated increase in its oil demand. The upward trend in its oil demand is expected to continue for a fairly long time to come but at a lower rate than many other countries experiencing rising oil demand. China will enter the transition stage during the 12th Five- Year Plan. According to estimates made by trend analysis, elastic coefficient analysis and holistic approaches, China's oil demand is expected to reach 455 million tons by 2010 at an annual average growth rate of 6.5% from 2007 to 2010.