福州城市用地变化的CA模型动态模拟研究

Dynamic Simulation of Urban Land-use Change of Fuzhou City Based on CA Model

城市用地变化是一种时空动态变化的复杂地理过程,如何有效地模拟这一过程是该研究领域的一个重要问题,在诸多模拟模型中元胞自动机具有明显优越性。本研究根据福州市1988年TM影像和2001、2004年ASTER影像提取城市用地信息,运用元胞自动机对未来20年城市用地变化进行模拟,并用2004年ASTER影像进行验证,结果表明:用元胞自动机对福州城市用地扩展的模拟达到较高的精度,未来20年内扩展平均速度将达7km2/年,远大于规划速度,扩展的主导方向为南部的南台岛,另一个重要扩展因素是乡村城市化加强,与此同时城市绿地不断被蚕食而减少。

Urban land-use change is a complex dynamic and spatio-temporal process and how to simulate this process is a key problem in the research field and Cellular Automata Model has obvious superiority. In this study, a TM image in 1988 and two ASTER images in 2001 and 2004 respectively of Fuzhou city were used to extract the urban land-use information of the research area and Cellular Automata Model was used to simulate the change of urban land-use in the following 20 years from 2001 and the precision was tested by the ASTER image in 2004. The result shows that urban land-use will expand at a speed of 7km^2/y and the leading direction of development will be the Nantai island with rural urbanization as the other key factor, at the same time the urban green area will shrink.