财政政策与宏观经济稳定:情势转变视角

China's Fiscal Policy and Macroeconomic Stability——Viewed from the Perspective of the Change in Situation

本文利用马尔可夫情势转变向量自回归模型,考察了20世纪90年代以来,我国宏观经济运行与财政政策的情势转变特征、财政政策对宏观经济稳定的影响以及财政政策的非线性效应。分析表明,我国财政支出政策的相机抉择变化比较符合凯恩斯经济周期理论所强调的"逆势而动"的特点,且有助于实体经济稳定,但加剧了通货膨胀波动;税收政策的相机抉择变化不符合宏观经济运行需要,并在一定程度上加剧了实体经济波动,但有助于价格稳定。我国财政政策总体上具有显著的、持续时间较长的"凯恩斯效应"。

By the use of Markov Regime Switching Vector autoregressive model, we have explored the characteristics of the operation of China's macro-economy, those of the regime switching of China's fiscal policy, the impact of fiscal policy upon the stability of macro-economy, and the non-linear effect of fiscal policy-all dating from the 1990s. Our analysis shows that the change in the discretionary government fiscal expenditure policies have been relatively in line with the feature of 'going upstream' stressed by Keynes's economic cycle theory and helped stabilize economic entity, but aggravated the fluctuation of inflation; and that the change in the discretionary tax policy has not been in conformity with the demand for macro-economic operation and aggravated, to some extent, the fluctuation of economic entity, but it has contributed to the stabilization of prices. China's fiscal policies have, on the whole, obvious and long-run Keynesian effect.