辽宁煤炭需求的GM(1,3)多因素预测

THE PREDICTION OF 2007-2010 COAL DEMAND IN LIAONING PROVINCE USING GM(1,3) METHOD

选取主要影响因素（GDP增长率、煤炭占能源消费比例）建立辽宁省煤炭消费需求预测模型GM（1，3），GM（1，3）模型中包含了两个GM（1，1）子模型：GDP增长率预测模型和煤炭占能源消费比例预测模型。各模型的精度均为1级（好）。对2006～2010年辽宁省GDP、煤炭占能源消费比例和煤炭消费三项的预测结果合理。采用灰色系统理论进行建模，能够克服相关数据不足的缺陷和避免人为因素的影响，但用于长期预测有待进一步研究。

Selecting major factors （GDP Increasing Rate; Coal Consumption Ratio in Energy）, establishing coal demand model in LIAONING province using GM （1, 3） method. There were two GM （1, 1） sub-models in main model-GM （1, 3）, one was prediction model of GDP increasing rate; another was prediction model of coal consumption ratio in energy. All precisions of main model and the sub-models were top -level. All prediction results of GDP increasing rate, coal consumption ratio in energy and coal demand in 2007～2010 were proper with economy and society in LIAONING province. Establishing model using GM method could avoid data deficiency and artificial disturbing effect. However, it needs more study using GM to predict long term demand.