甘肃省河西地区人口与资源多目标动态分析

THE MULTI-GOAL DYNAMIC ANALYSIS OF POPULATION AND RESOURCES IN THE WEST OF YELLOW RIVER IN GANSU PROVINCE

本文主要以水资源为依据,从食物角度出发,通过对河西地区技术进步,水土平衡,作物资源,草场资源及社会经济条件的分析,运用协同学,分维几何学,模糊数学,目标规划等方法,在计算机上模拟了河西地区的人口容量模型,预测了其在温饱型,小康型,科学营养型生活水平下,1990年,2000年和极限人口容量。并针对河西地区的具体特点,应用随机模型对本地区1990,2000和2050年的人口进行了预测。进而提出了科学的决策意见。

Since mankind has entered modern socity,people have been exploiting andusing natural resources and the scale and velocity of exploitation and utili-zation have been no example since the beginning of recorded history becauseof the astonishing development of population and the tremendous growth ofrequirement of means of livelihood. The environmental popllution and thewreck of ecosystem have become the global problem. Therefor, the researchof population and resources, environment has been extremely urgent. The potential carrying population capacity and actual bearing capacity ofpopulation are the concrete reflection on the problem of population,resourcesand environment. The carrying population capacity depends on the resources. The exploita-tion and utilization, and their level, scale, velocity influence the carryingcapacity directly. Generally, the natural resources determine the food produc-tion. Sunlight, heat, water, soil, climate, the abundance and lack of naturalresources,and the matching relation with crop growth determine the food out-put,Food is the controued factor.which is also the most essential and impor-tant. In this paper, through the analysis cf technique progress, balance be-tween water and land,natural conditions, grasslands resources, crop resourcesand the condition of social economy etc.and by means of Synergetics, FractalGeometry, Fuzzysets, Dicision Analysis, Goal programming and other mathe-matic methods, we simulate the model of carrying population capacity oncomputer and forecast the population size.the west of Yellow River in Gansucan support in the year 1990, 2000 and the limit, on the living standardof dressing warmly and eating one's fill, comparatively well--off standard,and scientifically nourishing standard respectively. Further, according to thereal population characteristic, we calculate the population of this region inthe yaar of 1990, 2000 and 2050 by means of the random model and put for-ward some scientific proposals with strategic importance.