甘肃人口增长对能源与环境的压力及其对策

THE PRESSURE AND COUNTERMEASURE OF POPULATION INCREASING TO ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENT IN GANSU PROVINCE

本文论述了人口、能源与环境之间关系后,分析了甘肃人口压力致使人均耕地从1949年的5.2亩下降到目前的2.4亩,人均淡水资源也减少了一半,到2000年还将继续递减1/4。笔者还利用状态方程预测了能源需求的增长趋势,指出甘肃能源供求的形势非常严重,尤其缺电情况将日益加剧。因此,在未来能耗构成中,将由大量煤炭转化为电能,空气污染必将加重。而且还由于国家将加速开发甘肃省的有色金属资源,提高矿产资源的冶炼和深加工能力,据预测,到一九九○年全省外排工业废水、废气、废渣和各种污染物将比一九八五年增加50—80％,二○○○年还将加大一倍,工业污染趋势加重,必将对兰州、白银等城市环境造成巨大的冲击和压力,人口对农村能源和生态环境压力的趋势也十分严重。如果不采取有效的对策,人口与能源、能源与环境的矛盾将日益加深,更加尖锐,那将引起更为严重的生态破坏,甚至可能导致局部地区生态系统的崩溃。为此,本文提出了控制人口,提高能源利用率,减轻环境压力,改善环境质量等一系列对策,使人口、能源、环境与经济协调发展。

The paper analyses the relationships of population,energy environment andpopulation pressure in Gansu and the facts that the average tillage per headreduied from 5.2 mu in 1949 to 2.4 mu up to the present; the average freshwater resources per head reduced by half, and will continue to reduce onequater by the year of 2000.The paper predicts the increasing tendency of energyrequirement by using statement equation and points out that the situationof energy supply and demand will be very serious, especially the lack ofelectric energy will become much sharper. Therefore, the component ofenergy will be transformed a lot from coal energy to electric energy which willlead to the gravity of the air pollution. Furthermore, it predicts that theindustry waste water,waste gases,droll and other waste matter will be increased50% to 80% from 1985 to 1990, two times or so in 2000 since the exploitationspeed and the ability of smelting and deep processing of nonferrous metalresources will be increased according to the nation's policy.That will cerlainlyincrease the industry pollution and cause a serious or pressures to the cityenvironment of Lanzhou and Baiyin. The pressure tendercy of population toenergy and ecological environment in the rural areas will become ratherserious,too. The contradictions between population and energy, energy andenvironment will also become much sharper of no effective countermeasurescould be taken,the ecological environment would be damaged severely, thelocal ecological system would even collapse.Therefore,the paper shows a seriesof counter measures cf controlling the increase of population, reducing theenvironmental pressure and improving the quality of environment etc.and thiswill help population energy, environment and economy develop harmoniously.