东南亚一些国家近期的储蓄、投资与经常账户盈余探析

An Analysis on Saving, Investment and Current Account Surplus in Southeast Asia

太平洋两岸—东南亚和美国——在经常账户上截然相反的表现是近期全球经济失衡的重要特征。本文在分解经常账户构成要素的基础上,试图从储蓄与投资角度探寻影响东南亚地区一些国家经常账户盈余成因,分析显示自亚洲金融危机以来东南亚整体投资恢复缓慢、消费不振是形成其经常账户盈余的重要原因,并进一步在计量模型中对影响东南亚和中国储蓄投资的因素进行了比较,发现二者存在较大差异,最后探讨性分析了降低不平衡的政策选择。

The dramatically different performance of the current accounts across the Pacific （Southeast Asia vs U. S. A） is a key trait of the global economic unbalance recently. This paper attempts to examine the sources leading to the unbalance of the current accounts by the saving and investment, and shows slow rehabilitation of investment and consumption slump in Southeast Asia are important factors incurring the current account surplus since the financial crisis. In the econometric model, we find that the variables affecting the saving and investment in Southeast Asia and China are very different. In the end, some policy suggestions are provided to reduce the unbalance.