基于GLUE方法的流域水文模型的不确定性分析

Uncertainty Analyses of Watershed Hydrological Model Based on GLUE Method

以东江流域中的星丰流域为研究对象,采用GLUE方法探讨了TOPMODEL模型在水文预报中的不确定性.研究结果表明,模型中的参数m、T0和RV较为敏感,它们的微小改变都将影响模拟结果,而参数SR0不太敏感.从两场次洪水的流量过程线可看出,模拟得到的流量过程线的上、下边界并不能完全包含实测流量过程线,总有一些实测流量落在90%的置信区间之外,说明TOPMODEL模型并不能完全模拟出该流域的流量过程,这正是由于模型的不确定性而引起的.

The GLUE method is applied to the uncertainty analyses of TOPMODEL hydrological model, with the Xingfeng catchment, a tributary of Dongjiang watershed, as the research object. The results show that the parameters m, T0 and RV are sensitive, any a slight change of them will influence the simulated results, while SR0 is not sensitive. Moreover, the observed flow hydrographs of two selected floods cannot be completely comprised in the upper and lower limits of the simulated hydrographs. Some flow values lie out of the 90% confidence interval, indicating that TOPMODEL model cannot simulate the whole flow process at the Xingfeng catchment due to the uncertainty of TOPMODEL model.